Let’s explore a common business decision—expanding into a new market—through this 3-part lens:
1. Things You Know You Know
This is your foundation—the solid facts you can rely on. For instance, you might know the market size, your product’s appeal to the demographic, and your company’s financial capacity. These are the known variables that inform your planning and strategies.
2. Things You Know You Don’t Know
These are the gaps you’re aware of, like local regulations, cultural nuances, or specific competitors in the new market. Identifying these uncertainties allows you to focus your research and preparation. For example, you might consult experts, commission surveys, or analyze industry reports to fill these knowledge gaps.
3. Things You Don’t Know You Don’t Know
Here lie the blind spots—unforeseen challenges or opportunities. Maybe a competitor is preparing a similar launch, or pending legislation could disrupt the market. The trickiest part is when what you thought you knew turns out to be wrong. For example, you might assume your financial data is accurate, only to discover errors that jeopardize your plans.
The Bigger Lesson
The truth is, all information is incomplete. Successfully navigating uncertainties requires skepticism, constant re-evaluation, and the humility to acknowledge blind spots. Often, the biggest blind spot is our ego—the belief that we’ve accounted for everything. To position yourself to adapt, learn, and succeed, put aside your ego.